Exploratory analysis of soybean production and exports and fertilizer imports by Brazil

Abstract

The brazilian trade balance depends on the export of commodities, especially soybeans, whose productivity is increased by maintaining nutrient levels in the soil by using fertilizers. The analysis of this product and the goods necessary for its production is relevant since the occurrence of global geopolitical, climatic and health events with the potential to impact the soybean production chain and, consequently, the national economy. This article aims to carry out an exploratory analysis of the production data published by Conab and the informations about the soybean exports and fertilizer imports available on Comex Stat platform in order to identify patterns and anomalies that occurred in the last five years. The analysis identified the drop in productivity in the 2018/19 and 2021/22 harvests caused by unfavorable weather conditions, as well as showed the national dependence on NPK fertilizers and the reduction in the imports of the russian product at the beginning of the conflict with Ukraine, in 2022. Finally, it highlighted the seasonal pattern of soybean exports throughout the year and presented the main brazilian trading partners related with these products, including China and Russia.