Explorations in Public Opinion-Presidential Power Linkages: Congressional Action on Unpopular Foreign Agreements

Abstract

This article explores the effect of public opinion on congressional action on foreign agreements, focusing on the Panama Canal treaties of 1977 and the North American Free Trade Agreement of 1993. The two agreements are highly suited to comparison, and provide an excellent test of how shifts in public opinion influence shifts in congressional support. Two types of opinion are included: (1) the general rating of the President's job performance, and (2) opinion on the foreign agreement being debated in Congress. Using quantitative methods, I test the respective influence of each of these types of opinion on congressional action. Both types of public opinion are regressed on head counts and votes taken on the two agreements, with the expectation that the more specific opinion data will be more influential.