Abstract
Objective To explore the nurses' demand forecasting methods of medical institutions and nursing homes in order to optimize configuration of nursing human resources. Methods Using the methods of average growth rate and medical ratio to predict the registered nurses based on the number of physicians in medical institutions, based on the number of nursing home beds to estimate the nurses of nursing home by bed/nurse ratio method. Results Medical institutions need to allocate 1 526 and 1 937 registered nurses by average growth rate in 2015 and 2020; but it needs 1 461-1 652 and 1 985-2 304 registered nurses by medical ratio in 2015 and 2020; nursing homes need to deploy 464 registered nurses and 928 nursing assistants in 2015, 494 registered nurses and 988 nursing assistants in 2020. Conclusions To estimate the of registered nurses in medical institutions by physician -nurse ratio based on the estimation of number of doctors by health service requirement is more realistic. Allocation of nursing assistants in nursing homes should be increased and nursing human resources should be allocated reasonably. Key words: Medical institution; Nursing homes; Registered nurse; Nursing assistant
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