Abstract

ABSTRACTA methodology is described for harnessing the predictive capacity of a groundwater model to underpin aquifer management decisions for changing abstraction within a licensing regulatory framework. The use of a ‘baseline predictive simulation’ is advocated from both aquifer management and scientific perspectives, and an example of groundwater modelling predictive work on the Nottingham‐Doncaster Sherwood Sandstone aquifer system is used to illustrate the methodology. Differences between the baseline predictive simulation and a predictive simulation are processed to extract quantitative information (spatially and temporally) on the response to changes in aquifer stresses. An explanation is given on the use of this information to aid aquifer management decisions for achieving environmental targets. The importance of the aquifer diffusivity with respect to a predictive simulation exercise is highlighted.

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