Exploration of a Composite Index to Describe Magnetospheric Activity: Reduction of the Magnetospheric State Vector to a Single Scalar

Abstract

AbstractGeomagnetic activity is usually gauged by a single time‐dependent geomagnetic index. One drawback is that an individual geomagnetic index measures only one aspect of the activity in the Earth's magnetosphere. Here we construct a time‐dependent 11‐element magnetospheric state vector E for Earth that consists of measures of high‐latitude currents, polar cap current, magnetospheric convection, plasma pressure, ion and electron precipitation rates, the intensity of substorm‐injected electrons, and the elapsed time since the last substorm onset. At the same time we construct an eight‐element time‐dependent solar‐wind state vector S from the measured properties of the solar wind at Earth. In this S → E picture a time‐dependent “magnetospheric‐activity index” E(1) is created from a weighted sum of the 11 variables in the magnetospheric state vector, with the weights chosen by the vector correlation properties between the magnetospheric state vector E and the solar wind state vector S. The properties and advantages of this E(1) index are examined for the years 1991–2007. Comparing fits made on different subsets of the data demonstrates the robustness of the definition of E(1); tests using out‐of‐sample data demonstrate the accuracy of solar wind predictions of E(1). The advantages of the composite index E(1) include a more direct association with the solar wind, linearity, high predictability, and versatility with respect to (a) storm‐versus‐quiet intervals, (b) solar maximum versus solar minimum, and (c) the various types of solar wind plasma. Defining magnetospheric storms with the composite index E(1) is explored, and categorizing magnetospheric storms using the magnetospheric state vector E is considered.