Abstract
We systematically study the value of the information contained in closed-end fund (CEF) premiums. We parametrically estimate CEF expected returns as a function of the history of CEF premiums, in addition to the current premium, and buy the quintile of funds with the highest expected returns and sell the quintile of funds with the lowest expected returns. The return on this portfolio suggests that previous studies, which examine the information in current premiums only, have understated the value of the information in premiums. Our strategy values the information in the history of CEF premiums at an annualized return of 18.2%.
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