Explicit prediction of hail using multimoment microphysics schemes for a hailstorm of 19 March 2014 in eastern China

Abstract

AbstractIn the late afternoon of 19 March 2014, a severe hailstorm swept through eastern central Zhejiang province, China. The storm produced golf ball‐sized hail, strong winds, and lighting, lasting approximately 1 h over the coastal city of Taizhou. The Advanced Regional Prediction System is used to simulate the hailstorm using different configurations of the Milbrandt‐Yau microphysics scheme that predict one, two, or three moments of the hydrometeor particle size distribution. Simulated fields, including accumulated precipitation and maximum estimated hail size (MESH), are verified against rain gauge observations and radar‐derived MESH, respectively. For the case of the 19 March 2014 storms, the general evolution is better predicted with multimoment microphysics schemes than with the one‐moment scheme; the three‐moment scheme produces the best forecast. Predictions from the three‐moment scheme qualitatively agree with observations in terms of size and amount of hail reaching the surface. The life cycle of the hailstorm is analyzed, using the most skillful, three‐moment forecast. Based upon the tendency of surface hail mass flux, the hailstorm life cycle can be divided into three stages: developing, mature, and dissipating. Microphysical budget analyses are used to examine microphysical processes and characteristics during these three stages. The vertical structures within the storm and their link to environmental shear conditions are discussed; together with the rapid fall of hailstones, these structures and conditions appear to dictate this pulse storm's short life span. Finally, a conceptual model for the life cycle of pulse hailstorms is proposed.