Explicit consideration of uncertainty in Great Lakes fisheries management: decision analysis of sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) control in the St. Marys River

Abstract

We used decision analysis to assist the Great Lakes Fishery Commission (GLFC) with sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) control in the St. Marys River, which connects Lake Superior to Lake Huron and until recently has been a major source of sea lamprey infestation of Lake Huron. The process involved decision-makers, managers, and experts in an analysis of management options, objectives, and critical uncertainties affecting the expected performance of alternative choices. We developed quantitative assessments of uncertainty about sea lamprey demographics and about the implementation effectiveness of three pest control options: trapping adult lampreys, sterile male releases, and lampricide treatment. We used a stochastic simulation model to forecast future parasitic sea lamprey abundance in Lake Huron for 10 management options. Management options that included enhanced levels of trapping and sterile male releases exhibited the best performance for all measures. Our analysis substantially influenced the GLFC strategy for the St. Marys River, providing an example of how explicit consideration of uncertainty using decision analysis can influence fishery management decisions.