Explanations for Different Opposition Competitiveness Degrees in African Dominant Party Systems

Abstract

This chapter follows a “Rokkanian” perspective of critical junctures and historical legacies of political cleavages to explain institutionalization and strength of the opposition in African dominant party systems of the third wave of democratization. Competitive opposition is rooted in historical legacies of cleavages that were formed during the first pre-independence elections and survived the political vicissitudes after decolonization. The chapter develops a quantitative measurement of historical legacies of cleavages and successfully tests its purported positive influence based on a data set of 53 elections in 18 African party systems characterized by one-party dominance, clientelism and valence competition. In sum, to be more immune against factionalism as well as co-optation by the dominant party, opposition parties need a “brand identity” based on historical political conflict.