Explanationism and Justified Beliefs about the Future

Abstract

Explanationism holds that a person’s evidence supports a proposition just in case that proposition is part of the best available explanation for the person’s evidence. I argue that explanationism faces a serious difficulty when it comes to justified beliefs about the future. Often, one’s evidence supports some proposition about the future but that proposition is not part of the best available explanation for one’s evidence. Attempts to defend explanationism against this charge are unattractive. Moving to a modified better contrastive explanation account will help with these cases, but it will face other difficulties.