Explaining Variation in Homicide Rates Across Eastern and Western European Cities: The Effects of Social, Political, and Economic Forces

Abstract

Most previous empirical comparative studies of homicide examine homicide rates across nations or subnational units within a single country. This study is one in which a European cross-national city comparison is made. We aim to provide insight into the extent that the homicide rates are related to the social and economic forces characterizing a sample of European cities. Derived from theories rooted in classic works, including social disorganization, strain, and urbanism, are six hypothesized effects of structural forces on homicide rates. Data are obtained from Eurostat’s Urban Audit file for the 2001 time frame. Analyses show that cities’ deprivation and population structure indexes are strong predictors of homicide rates. The predicted effects of unemployment rates, population heterogeneity, and age structure on homicide rates, however, were not consistently corroborated by these results. Comparing Eastern and Western European countries, there is also support for the influence of the country’s level of development on city-level homicide rates.