Explaining the influence of Maghrebi rivalries on Tunisian foreign policy

Abstract

ABSTRACT Regional rivalries, as hostile and violent relationships, offer powerful explanations of foreign policy behaviour of non-rivals, yet are seldom explored. The article argues for why rivalries should be attended to by analysis of foreign policy, and then it demonstrates how they come to matter through an analysis of Tunisian foreign policy. The explanatory salience of rivalries is demonstrated by analysing how in the post-independence period up to 2011, the Morocco-Algeria and the Algeria-Libya rivalries conditioned the regional order in the Maghreb and directly influenced how Tunisian decision makers evaluated regional politics. The article explains how in reaction to rivalries’ effects, Tunisia incrementally developed a calibrated foreign policy posture defined here as one of distance with three features: signing on but not working to realise regionally-generated unity projects or alliances, committing to international legal positions concerning these rivalries, and consolidating ties with France. In so doing, the article shows how rivalry analysis complicates traditional explanations of Tunisian foreign policy that emphasise the idiosyncratic role of long-serving presidents’ personalities over an exclusionary political setting.