Explaining the Green vote: Belgian local elections, 1994–2006

Abstract

In the debate about the electoral appeal of Green parties, some authors argue that Green voting is a phenomenon typical of the ‘new middle class’ (young, highly educated and urban), while others assume that Green parties are able to reach out to new constituencies. Aggregate level data on the electoral performance of Belgian Green parties in the period 1994–2006, analysed using a Tobit II model, indicate that entry into the elections is strongly determined by district magnitude. No evidence of a mainstreaming of their electoral appeals was found, but a strong positive incumbency effect on the local level, as Green parties tend to be rewarded for participation in a local governing majority, contrasts with the negative incumbency effects demonstrated at the national level.