Explaining the crime drop: contributions to declining crime rates from youth cohorts since 2005

Gwyn Griffiths,Gareth Norris

doi:10.1007/s10611-019-09846-5

Abstract

Since the mid-90s there has been almost a 50% reduction in the volume of crime in England and Wales - a trend that has been mirrored in many Western countries (Greenberg Justice Quarterly, 31(1), 154–188, 2014). Despite previous assumptions, for example, declining birth cohorts, it is proposed here that the decline in crime for the 1995–2005 period can largely be attributed to a doubling of the probability of a crime being ‘proven’ (cf Lloyd et al. 1994; MOJ, 2012; Taylor 2016). However, in the last decade these reductions in crime rates have levelled off to a relatively stable degree. Analysis of published data relating to the performance of the criminal justice system in England and Wales suggests that reductions in crime levels since 2005 are largely accounted for by the fall in proportion of the youth population engaging in offending behaviour. It is argued that falls in rates of crime are largely independent of the offending frequency of young people or variations in the probability of offences being proven; rather, reductions in youth crime over this period could largely be attributed to policy changes, including multiagency interventions targeted at young people who were at risk of starting to offend (McAra and McVie 2015; Smith 2015). Further discussion suggests that the binary proven reoffending rate is not an accurate barometer of criminal justice system performance; rather it is argued that reductions in the youth offending population feed forward into later reductions in the number of adult offenders and further impact on overall crime rates in the longer term.

Highlights

In the last two decades, the youth justice system in England and Wales has undergone a range of different policy changes designed to reflect the neo-liberal approach to juvenile justice [1]
The introduction of the Criminal Justice and Public Order Act 1994 and the Crime and Disorder Act 1998 would appear to be critical policy shifts that correlate with these observed reductions
From 2005, there was a general stability in the adult offending population/offending frequency, but the crime rate continued to fall

Summary

Introduction

In the last two decades, the youth justice system in England and Wales has undergone a range of different policy changes designed to reflect the neo-liberal approach to juvenile justice [1]. Different and often competing models, loosely defined by the opposing models of ‘justice’ and ‘welfare’ [3], policies, which Case and Haines [4] define in more detail as ‘dystopian’ (emphasising control and responsibility) or ‘utopian’ (recognising the rights of children) Whilst these positivistic and classicist models of youth justice are theoretically opposing, a ‘continua’ [4] or ‘hybrid’ range of responses exist in order to address youth offending behaviour, for example, restorative justice and minimum intervention/diversion. Current ‘neo-correctionalist’ models that characterise the dominant approach advocated in England and Wales, are examples of the hybridisation of youth justice policies with an emphasis upon the responsibility of the offender on the one hand and the prevention of further offending on the other [5]. As Goldson and Muncie note in relation to the continuing shifts in youth justice policy and aims: B[ ... ] youth justice policy discourses and the systems that emanate from them, comprise fluid sites of contestation and uneasy settlements of competing and/or intersecting thematics including: welfare; justice; informalism; rights; responsibilities; restoration; prevention; remoralization and retribution/punishment^ ([6]; p.91)

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Results

Conclusion