Explaining Religion-Invoking Terrorism: The Importance of a Well-Specified Theory in Hypothesis Testing

Abstract

The task of designing and interpreting surveys is challenging when an underlying social phenomenon is not clearly elucidated in the literature. Salafi (Islamist) extremism embraced by organizations such as the Islamic State, is one such phenomenon. The consensus view is that such extremism is complex, without a well-identified root cause. In our global society, such powerful social movements keep emerging. I discuss how hypotheses designed and tested without the context of a well-specified theory of such movements can lead to misspecified empirical models or misleading measures of key concepts. I also illustrate how one may develop a theory of Salafi extremism and validate it using empirical data. Unlike most existing models of terrorism, the proposed theory aims to identify a causal mechanism behind the onset of Salafi extremism. The theory, and the empirical data upon which it is based seem to suggest that belief in Sharia as the law of the land, as advocated by religious leaders, provides the basis for radicalization and the emergence of Salafi jihadist groups. The proposed theoretical framework can form a basis for additional surveys that can further help delineate the phenomenon.