Explaining Reelection in the European elections 2014

Abstract

What determines the likelihood that incumbent Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) are reelected? This chapter investigates the attributes and activities that national parties and voters may value when assessing incumbent MEPs’ term in office: leadership, experience, loyalty, expertise, dedication, or signaling. In a hierarchical logistic regression model, it examines the impact of a variety of legislative activities; leadership positions in European Parliament, party, and committee; seniority; and party loyalty. It also considers the extent to which the effects of these variables are conditional on ballot structure (preferential voting vs. closed party lists). The results show five factors to be positively associated with reelection: serving as party group leader, rapporteur, and intergroup chair, as well as, for those MEPs elected using preferential voting, the number of intergroups joined. Moreover, preferential voting is associated with a greater likelihood of reelection. These findings highlight, in particular, the importance of policy expertise for the electoral prospects of incumbent MEPs (as captured by rapporteurship and intergroup leadership). The results for leadership, signaling, and dedication are mixed, while party loyalty and experience have no apparent effect.