Explaining Electoral Successes in Greek Parliamentary Elections: Is it the Economy Again?

Abstract

This paper asks the following question: can the macroeconomic fluctuations of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) explain the electoral success of political parties? Notwithstanding other important determinants such as the charisma of the leader of a popular political party or ideology, the economy may very well explain electoral successes. In this paper, I use a very simple variable to account for the economy: the rate of growth of GDP. It is claimed that years of relative higher growth are associated with the incumbent government retaining its power, while years of zero or negative growth rates are related with the fall of an incumbent government. The period between 1974-2023 shows evidence of Greek economic growth and the impact on elections and therefore the hypothesis cannot be rejected that the economy plays a central role in explaining electoral successes, and especially failures, of incumbent governments. Keywords: Greece, elections, economy, GDP, political parties, time series, policy, political leaders