EXPLAINING EARLY EXIT RATES FROM THE ROYAL NAVY

Abstract

The Royal Navy (RN) is striving to achieve the right manpower mix through improved retention levels. This paper analyses the ratings’ exit patterns from the RN using a hazard regression framework. We hypothesise that similar to civilian workers, job transition decisions of the RN ratings are dependent upon alternative job availability and macroeconomic conditions. In addition, working conditions, gender and skill mix, family commitments and promotion prospects in the Navy influence their decisions to leave early. We estimate the unemployment elasticity for males to be −0.65 (female −0.51), which is high, compared to the elasticity reported for the US Navy. The civilian wage is positively related to exit probability from the RN. Overall, married ratings are less likely to exit as compared to their unmarried counterparts, but married female ratings are 88% more likely to leave early as compared to unmarried females in the Navy. Promotion to higher ranks reduces the probability of early exists.