Explaining Democratic Survival Globally (1946–2002)

Abstract

Do parliamentary regimes outperform presidential ones in reducing democratic breakdown? Given the relatively higher breakdown rate of presidential regimes as compared to that of parliamentary regimes, which factors can explain the breakdown of presidential democracies? Using an original global dataset covering 85 countries from 1946 to 2002, this study shows presidential democracies are not intrinsically more likely to collapse than parliamentary ones. The study also reveals the oft-cited “military legacy” cannot explain breakdowns of presidential democracies. Instead, a less effective legislature and unfavorable U.S. foreign policy, two neglected factors in the extant literature, can robustly explain the breakdown of presidential democracies. This research confirms more effective legislatures are more likely to achieve oversight of the military and reduce the latter's threats to democratic survival than less effective legislatures. A test for simultaneity bias indicates the type of political regime does ...