Explaining Change in Policy Subsystems: Analysis of Coalition Stability and Defection over Time

Abstract

The focus of this paper is on the processes by which change occurs in the structure and membership of policy subsystem coalitions. Employing longitudinal data derived from content analysis of congressional hearings, we examine expressed policy beliefs of organizational elites in the highly charged policy debate waged over outer continental shelf energy leasing from 1969 to 1987. Using the stated policy positions of representatives of organizations that are regular participants in the subsystem, we analyze differences in the level of constraint evident on the expression of policy positions by representatives of purposive and material groups. We then analyze the content and stability of advocacy coalitions within the policy subsystem, assessing the membership of coalitions and tracking defections to and from coalitions over the 1969-87 time period. Finally, we employ interrupted time series regression models, corrected for autocorrelation, to analyze the origins of defection from and to advocacy coalitions by the U.S. Department of Interior. Overall, our intent is to explain the internal workings of subsystems-and their responsiveness to exogenous events-in a highly polarized policy dispute in a manner that helps integrate our understanding of subsystem dynamics with theories of group representation and principal-agent behavior.