Explaining aggregate private saving behaviour: new evidence from a panel of OECD countries

Abstract

This study analyses some of the empirical determinants of aggregate private saving rates for a panel of 21 OECD countries over the period 1964 to 2001. Among the fiscal determinants considered, there is evidence of an important trade-off between public and private saving and a negative effect of higher current public expenditure on private saving. Among the macroeconomic and financial variables introduced, the income growth rate is the most significant and has a positive effect on private saving. Finally, only a demographic variable, the urbanization rate, has a positive effect on private saving. Interestingly, the sub-sample formed by the G-7 countries shows substantial qualitative and quantitative differences in the determinants of aggregate private saving, particularly a reduction of the effects of the fiscal policy variables.