Explainable RUL estimation of turbofan engines based on prognostic indicators and heterogeneous ensemble machine learning predictors

Abstract

Data-driven prognostics of systems exploit sensor measurements to predict the degradation evolution and anticipate failures, corresponding to the estimation of the remaining useful life (RUL). This task uses feature engineering to build prognostic indicators (HI) and machine learning (ML) to estimate the RUL. However, high variability in data coming from similar systems operating under different conditions negatively affects the RUL performance. Hence, this paper presents a new methodology that combines feature and ML engineering methods to provide an explainable RUL prediction. The key contributions lie in constructing efficient prognostic indicators that isolate distinct profile trajectories, enabling adaptive RUL extraction for each system. An ensemble of heterogeneous ML predictors is also trained using these indicators and RUL trajectories, effectively addressing variability issues and enhancing RUL performance. The proposed methodology is rigorously validated using NASA-provided turbofan engine data (C-MAPSS), demonstrating its performance, compared to state-of-the-art results, with improved score and accuracy of prediction.