Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the relevance of goods delivery in urban areas. However, this activity often generates negative environmental impact and several technologies have been proposed in recent years to reduce it, thus forming a complex innovation landscape characterized by different levels of maturity and effects on the City Logistics (CL) system. This complexity causes a deep uncertainty over the future of CL. This paper aims to tackle this uncertainty by forecasting the future of a set of CL technologies. A Delphi survey has been submitted to experts of this field to achieve a stable consensus over 33 projections related to 7 CL technologies for the year 2030. Results show that real-time data collection will help the coordination process between stakeholders, engendering an increased awareness over the value of using logistics data as well as its potential drawbacks. Moreover, experts share a positive attitude towards the expansion of Parcel Lockers, which should be monitored by public authorities to avoid a negative impact on land use. Finally, technologies such as drones and crowd-logistics have drawn the lowest level of consensus due to their lower level of maturity, which arouse the necessity to further explore several issues such as legal and technical barriers.
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