Abstract
Australian agriculture is very susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change, with major shifts in temperature and rainfall projected. In this context, this paper describes a research methodology for assessing potential climate change impacts on, and formulating adaptation options for, agriculture at regional level. The methodology was developed and applied in the analysis of climate change impacts on key horticultural commodities—pome fruits (apples and pears), stone fruits (peaches and nectarines) and wine grapes—in the Goulburn Broken catchment management region, State of Victoria, Australia. Core components of the methodology are mathematical models that enable to spatially represent the degree of biophysical land suitability for the growth of agricultural commodities in the region of interest given current and future climatic conditions. The methodology provides a sound analytic approach to 1) recognise regions under threat of declines in agricultural production due to unfolding climatic changes; 2) identify alternative agricultural systems better adapted to likely future climatic conditions and 3) investigate incremental and transformational adaptation actions to improve the problem situations that are being created by climate change.
Highlights
The Earth’s climate has changed in the past, is changing and will continue to change in the future
The methodology provides a sound analytic approach to 1) recognise regions under threat of declines in agricultural production due to unfolding climatic changes; 2) identify alternative agricultural systems better adapted to likely future climatic conditions and 3) investigate incremental and transformational adaptation actions to improve the problem situations that are being created by climate change
This paper describes a research methodology developed for assessing potential climate change impacts on, and formulating adaptation options for, agriculture at regional level in Australia
Summary
The Earth’s climate has changed in the past, is changing and will continue to change in the future. There is extensive scientific evidence that the observed rapid warming of the Earth since the Industrial Revolution has been caused by human-induced climatologically phenomena interacting with natural climate processes. The impacts are likely to become more serious over coming decades as global warming is projected to accelerate, with an increasing risk of drastic changes to natural and human systems [1,2,3]. Reducing the vulnerability of coupled socio-ecological systems (including human settlements, biodiversity, land and water resources, and economic activities) to the impacts of climate change by means of adaptation is critical. “[Planned] adaptation involves changes in socio-ecological systems in response to actual and expected impacts of climate change in the context of interacting non-climatic changes. Adaptation strategies and actions can range from short-term coping to longer-term, deeper transformations.” [4]
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