Expert poll in complex system projects – scientometric view on the trend of redundancy research

Victor Egorov,Andrey Rementsov,Alexander Rementsov,Tatyana Egorovа,M Kulev,S Roshchupkin

doi:10.1051/matecconf/202134100066

Abstract

When carrying out research works in the economic, political, sociological fields, as well as in the sphere of governance and in management, we widely apply the integral characteristics of a plenty of factors affecting the existence, functioning and further effectiveness of the existence of the object being studied - a social phenomenon, the development and extinction socio-political trends, the existence and stability of specific clusters of economic projects or some large technical projects, etc. Since the influence manifestations of different factors are different, for estimation of their influence complex (vector. To assess the impact, an analysis of expert opinions is carried out, often with multiple redundancy. Such an approach can lead not to an increase in reliability, but to the opposite result, certainly leading to an increase in the cost of preliminary analysis.

Highlights

The impact of various factors on the effectiveness of a project, system, or complex object is diverse
Complex assessments are often used, including multiple attributes, for example, the weight of the impact on project output parameters from this or another factor, the possible duration of exposure or manifestation of the exposure at different stages of the project, the risk of losses caused by one or another factor, etc.[1,2]. These weighting coefficients are determined on the basis of an expert judgment with further processing according to certain algorithms
The tasks of ranking and classifying objects, indicators that are taking into account for making a choice of equipment, methods of analysis and so on

Summary

Introduction

The impact of various factors on the effectiveness of a project, system, or complex object is diverse. The error (variation) of expert opinions with its normal distribution and with a small (relative to the average generalized value of this opinion) value will significantly depend on how close this average value is to the boundaries of the specified intervals within which it is proposed to evaluate the parameter under consideration For such conditions, the function of the angle ß between the vectors leaving the point shifted from the origin to the unit vector {-1,-1,-1,...,-1} can be used, providing an acceptable possibility of spread at small averages (required due to the discrete step of data change). A numerical estimate of such probabilities is made by so-called risk factors

Primary analysis of excessively detailed expert surveys

Conclusion