Expert judgments calibration and combination for assessment of river levee failure probability

Abstract

In civil engineering, the utilisation of expert judgement is important for evaluating the reliability of structures whose failure behaviour is little known and difficult to quantify. This article presents the application of the approaches of elicitation, calibration and aggregation of expert opinions to evaluate the reliability of river levees. These approaches have seldom been used in the field of French hydraulic structures whereas there is growing interest for them in other countries, concerning structures reliability and other fields such as aerospace industry, nuclear industry, hydrology, statistics, economics, psychology etc. This article proposes a quantitative approach to the use of expert judgement for evaluating river levee failure probability. An application to the case of an existing river levee is presented. The approach developed assesses the expert opinions according to their calibration (statistical accuracy) and their informativeness, then aggregates them in a single calibrated opinion. Applying the proposed weighting and aggregation procedure reduces variability in the probability of failure estimate, then it provides a better probabilistic distribution of aggregated expert opinion than of individual expert opinions. The results allow identifying a trend of aggregated expert opinions that point towards over- or lack of confidence.