Expert evaluation of dual-use technical products

Abstract

Subject. Progressive and accelerating economic growth of the Russian military-industrial complex needs additional extra-budgetary revenues, which can be obtained using the creation and market sale of dual-use technical products used in the military and civilian spheres. Objectives. The great number of dual technical products, and the complexity of comprehensive assessment of the possibility of their commercialization necessitates creation of special system-wide information and analytical tools. Methods. For objective economic assessment of this type of products, we developed a conceptual method based on their preliminary clustering (grouping) and systematic classification, taking into account the conditions and possibilities of commercial distribution. Results. We identified the main features of clustering and classification of dual products, i.e. the rate of obtaining additional financial profit and economic return from commercial sales, the amount of necessary investments, risky situations and uncertainties. We developed a method to evaluate their commercial and technical potential. The expert assessment of this type of products helps specify and clarify the possibilities and the most effective directions of their commercialization already at the preliminary stage of the systems analysis, identify additional methods for their further and more accurate analysis. The developed expert assessment method can be used in the military-industrial complex, and by high-tech enterprises producing civilian products. Conclusions. The proposed expert assessment of dual-use technical products will enable to develop a system regulation for performing a pre-investment assessment of future sales of technical products, increase the productivity and profitability of defense enterprises.