Experimental Test and Prediction Model of Soil Thermal Conductivity in Permafrost Regions

Abstract

Soil thermal conductivity is a dominant parameter of an unsteady heat-transfer process, which further influences the stability and sustainability of engineering applications in permafrost regions. In this work, a laboratory test for massive specimens is performed to reveal the distribution characteristics and the parameter-influencing mechanisms of soil thermal conductivity along the Qinghai–Tibet Engineering Corridor (QTEC). Based on the measurement data of 638 unfrozen and 860 frozen soil specimens, binary fitting, radial basis function (RBF) neural network and ternary fitting (for frozen soils) prediction models of soil thermal conductivity have been developed and compared. The results demonstrate that, (1) particle size and intrinsic heat-conducting capacity of the soil skeleton have a significant influence on the soil thermal conductivity, and the typical specimens in the QTEC can be classified as three clusters according to their thermal conductivity probability distribution and water-holding capacity; (2) dry density as well as water content sometimes does not have a strong positive correlation with thermal conductivity of natural soil samples, especially for multiple soil types and complex compositions; (3) both the RBF neural network method and ternary fitting method have favorable prediction accuracy and a wide application range. The maximum determination coefficient (R2) and quantitative proportion of relative error within ±10% ( P ± 10 % ) of each prediction model reaches up to 0.82, 0.88, 81.4% and 74.5%, respectively. Furthermore, because the ternary fitting method can only be used for frozen soils, the RBF neural network method is considered the optimal approach among all three prediction methods. This study can contribute to the construction and maintenance of engineering applications in permafrost regions.