Experimental sensitivity analysis applied to sample preparation uncertainties: are ruggedness tests enough for measurement uncertainty estimates?

Abstract

It has been suggested that typical ruggedness tests might lead directly to uncertainty estimates. This assertion is tested using simple experimental studies of uncertainties associated with sample grinding and oven-drying operations. The results are used to predict the outcome of typical ruggedness tests on the same systems. It is concluded that uncertainty estimation from ruggedness tests is appropriate only where a strong effect can be observed. Since current practice in ruggedness testing is predisposed to confirming insignificance, typical ruggedness tests are not likely to lead to reliable uncertainty estimates; instead, lack of statistical significance in ruggedness tests is better interpreted as reason to leave an effect out of the uncertainty budget. Only where the ruggedness study is modified in order to achieve statistically significant change is it useful for uncertainty estimation.