Experimental Global Forecasts of Atmospheric Parameters Based on Experimental Technology that Takes into Account Ozone Photochemistry (FOROZ Model)

Abstract

The results of numerical seasonal forecasts of temperature calculated with two interactive global numerical models, the CHARM photochemical model (0–90 km) of the Central Aerological Observatory (CAO) and the seasonal forecast model PLAV of the Hydrometeorological Centre/Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (0–30 km), are presented. The wind and temperature fields above 30 km were linked with the CAO ARM general circulation model. The forecast results are compared with reanalysis data. The calculations show that the new combined model (Forecast with Ozone, FOROZ) is stable under numerical scenarios. The seasonal forecast temperature fields of the PLAV model and the combined FOROZ model with reanalysis data are close in the lower troposphere and differ in the stratosphere. The combined FOROZ model improves the temperature forecast for the upper troposphere and stratosphere.