Experimental Electionomics: How Election Forecasts Influence Voter Turnout

Abstract

We create forecasts as a way of reducing the uncertainty that surrounds uncertain events.Often, forecasts provide information that can be acted upon, and in the case of elections, theiruse as a decision aid can have a direct effect on the outcome of the election. Currently, it’sunclear how potential voters incorporate election forecasts in their decision making. To gain abetter understanding of this, a survey was created and distributed to 186 subjects. Participantswere introduced to two fictional candidates in a hypothetical presidential election, and providedtheir stances on a series of political issues. Subjects were asked whether or not they’d vote fortheir preferred candidate, and were randomly shown one of four different election forecasts.Then, they were asked again whether or not they’d vote for their preferred candidate. Overall,participants’ decision to turn out switched 14% of the time after being shown an electionforecast. There was no evidence to suggest that there is a relationship between the type offorecast shown and the likelihood that an individual switched his or her turnout decision. Thisresearch shows that election forecasts do have an impact voting behavior, but the mechanism bywhich this occurs remains unclear. As such, future research on this topic should be conducted tobetter understand how voters use forecasts. This will assist media outlets and campaigns in beingwell informed of the impact associated with forecast reporting, allowing American democracy togrow stronger.