Experiences in evaluating regional air quality models

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Any area of the world concerned with the health and welfare of its people and the viability of its ecological system must eventually address the question of the control of air pollution. This is true in developed countries as well as countries that are undergoing a considerable degree of industrialization. The control or limitation of the emissions of a pollutant can be very costly. To avoid ineffective or unnecessary control, the nature of the problem must be fully understood and the relationship between source emissions and ambient concentrations must be established. Mathematical models, while admittedly containing large uncertainties, can be used to examine alternatives of emission restrictions for achieving safe ambient concentrations. The focus of this paper is to summarize our experiences with modeling regional air quality in the United States and Western Europe. The following modeling experiences have been used: future SO 2 and sulfate distributions and projected acidic deposition as related to coal development in the northern Great Plains in the U.S.; analysis of regional ozone and sulfate episodes in the northeastern U.S.; analysis of the regional ozone problem in western Europe in support of alternative emission control strategies; analysis of distributions of toxic chemicals in the Southeast Ohio River Valley in support of the design of a monitoring network human exposure. Collectively, these prior modeling analyses can be invaluable in examining a similar problem in other parts of the world as well, such as the Pacific rim in Asia.