Experience with futures research in South Africa

Abstract

South African futures research programmes are largely funded by the private sector as a support service for corporate strategic planning. The development of a methodology and philosophy of futures research at the University of Stellenbosch was strongly influenced by the need to provide an effective environmental scanning, scenario planning and organizational transformation service to the Associates of the Institute for Futures Research (IFR) who were funding the programme. This motivated researchers to take careful cognizance of the practical applicability and communications design of its services. The key to this process was sustained efforts to affect the worldview of leadership. The experience and information gained during this process were used in various scenario presentations and in transformational projects aimed at the broader South African population and the government. Scenarios such as the 1987 Anglo-American scenarios and the 1991 Nedcor/Old Mutual scenarios, stimulated much interest and affected national perspectives on the possible futures of South Africa. Futurists correctly identified many key issues facing the country and provided useful pointers towards possible ways for dissolving the South African problematique. The fall of apartheid and the election of a government of national unity present new challenges to futures research, especially with respect to support in envisioning and designing a new order.