EXPERIENCE OF USING MAXIMAL ENTROPY METHOD (MAXENT) FOR ZONING OF THE TERRITORY BY HERS RISK USING NIZHNY NOVGOROD REGION AS AN EXAMPLE

Abstract

Aim. Zoning of the territory of Nizhny Novgorod region by risk of HFRS infection using Maxent method. Materials and methods. Data from Centre of Hygiene and Epidemiology in Nizhny Novgorod region for each case of the HFRS for 2010 - 2016, data on environment (Bioclim), data on vegetation activity (MODIS) were used. ArcGIS 10.2.2 and Maxent 3.3.3k packages were used. Results. Model for evaluation of potential risk of HFRS in Nizhny Novgorod was developed and validated. Conclusion. The data obtained do not contradict the observed spatial localization of the cases of HFRS infection (prediction accuracy over 75%), detected connection between spatial localization of HFRS cases and combination of environment factors and allow to predict changes in borders of potentially dangerous segments after environmental changes.