Experience in forecasting long-term settlements of energy facilities based on monitoring data analysis

Abstract

The article discusses the problem of predicting the long-term settlement of reactor compartments of nuclear power plant with a long history of operation and ongoing creep processes. The features of determining the time of the primary consolidation and the application of the parameters of the secondary consolidation are considered. With regard to the existing buildings of the reactor compartments of a nuclear power plant, a forecast of long-term deformations of the base was made, from the present time to 2062, which is the end of the operation period. The analysis and comparison of the obtained results with the data of geotechnical monitoring were also carried out. Analytical forecasting showed a high accuracy in determining the end time of filtration consolidation, however, a comparison of the values of the obtained creep settlements to date and the rate of their development shows significant differences, which makes it necessary to take into account the real picture of deformation for further forecasting in terms of operation time. Possible technological reasons for discrepancies in the results of calculations and geotechnical monitoring are analyzed, as well as theoretical reasons like imperfections of the analytical method used and the possible application of modern numerical methods.