Experience in assessing the abundance and spatial distribution of geese on the Taimyr Peninsula using the aerial survey method

Abstract

The Taimyr Peninsula is a key region for reproduction of waterfowl of European and Asian wintering populations. The uniqueness of Taimyr is that birds migrate there from both the west and the east, following five out of eight global flyways: East Atlantic, Black Sea/Mediterranean, West Asian/East African, Central Asian, and East Asian/Australasian. The study develops the topic of conservation ornithology and sustainable use of biological resources raised at the First All-Russian Ornithological Congress by Dr. Evgeny Syroechkovsky. Russia lacks the system of state monitoring and assessment of waterfowl populations, in particular with the use of aerial survey methods. In 2019, counts of geese in the tundra zone of the Taimyr Peninsula were carried out from the board of an ultralight aircraft specially designed for aerial surveys. New data on the abundance and spatial distribution of geese were obtained. We substantiated the methodology for the survey flight routing with no transects and the use of GIS, remote sensing, and generalized additive models (GAM) for interpreting the results and extrapolating estimates of goose abundance. A database of the results of aerial surveys was compiled (http://rggsurveys.ru). According to our estimate, for the first time made by statistical modeling for the tundra zone of the Taimyr Peninsula, more than 1.5 million White-fronted geese, about 450000 Bean geese, 78400 Red-breasted geese, and 43000 Lesser White-fronted geese nest and moult on Taimyr. Comparison of these figures with modern estimates of the world populations of these species demonstrates the key role of the Taimyr Peninsula in maintaining populations of rare and economically important Anseriformes.