Expected Utility Analysis of Guessing on Multiple-Choice Examinations

Abstract

Before the first examination I inform all the students that the grades in all sections will be pooled before any curve or grade distribution is established. I then review the fallacy of composition which is a standard part of my first lecture. This is followed by a discussion of price-fixing arrangements among suppliers. It is pointed out that in such agreements each supplier is to provide only a given number of units to the market in an attempt to raise the market price. Initially, the suppliers behave accordingly and the price rises. Once the price has risen, however, there is a tendency on the part of the individual suppliers to cheat, and each begins to supply more than his quota to the market. Each individual reasons that his individual action will not affect the price, but the cumulative effect of many individuals acting in this way destroys the price-fixing arrangement, and the price usually falls. An analogy is then drawn to the flow of examination information from one section to another. The class enters into a grade-fixing agreement. Each individual realizes that his cooperation in stemming the flow of information is essential, or the agreement will break down, and grades will be higher in the later sections. Violations seem to be minimal. Grade differences among the sections have not been statistically significant since I began using this technique.