Expected quality in European football attendance: market value and uncertainty reconsidered

Abstract

The aim of this article was to deepen the study of the determinants of the sporting event’s demand. Specifically, this study is focused on the relationship between the expected quality of the event and attendance at the European football stadiums. The study explores the Rottemberg Hypothesis (1956), which states the existence of a positive effect of the outcome uncertainty on attendance demand and approximates with dynamic indexes the outcome uncertainty and the quality of the contestant teams. From the estimation of the attendance equation using quantile regression (which takes into account the heterogeneity of the demand) highlights the fact that the attractive aspect of the event, approximated by the market value of the players taking the field, has a positive and significant impact whatever typology of venue. In addition, this study provides empirical support to the assumption that game day demand is more related to the quality of contestant teams than to outcome uncertainty level.