Expected prevalence of the facultative parasitoid Megaselia scalaris of honey bees in Africa and the Mediterranean region under climate change conditions

Abstract

The biological invasion with new pests and pest status are highly impacted by future climate change conditions. There are a number of parasitic flies that can infect honey bees causing some economic damages. The information related to the geographical distribution of such parasitic pests is very limited under current and future climate conditions. The facultative parasitoid Megaselia scalaris is the focus of this study. Ecological modeling approach was used to model current and potential future distribution of this fly in Africa and the Mediterranean region. Occurrence records from five countries, six temperature variables, future models for 2050 and 2070, and maximum entropy algorithm in Maxent were used during the analysis. The highest contribution in the model was to annual mean temperature, mean diurnal range, minimum temperature of the coldest month, and the mean temperature of the warmest quarter representing 92.4% of the total percentage. The performance of the model was perfect according to the evaluation analysis. The study maps showed the suitability of current conditions for the prevalence of this fly in various regions in Africa and Europe. Maps for all time points confirmed the occurrence of this pest in North Africa especially Northern parts from Egypt to Morocco, Sub-Saharan Africa, and countries in South Europe. The implications of such prevalence of M. scalaris on beekeeping were discussed.