Expected long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on travel behaviour and online activities: Evidence from a Czech panel survey

Abstract

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and the counter-pandemic measures have led to a substantial drop in mobility. The interesting question is whether mobility will return to the pre-pandemic levels after the pandemic or whether at least a part of the change in mobility will be long-lasting. In this paper, we investigate the expected long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on work from home and online shopping. Using individual responses from panel data collected among the Czech adult urban population in four waves during 2020 and 2021, we expect a long-term increase in work from home and online shopping relative to the pre-pandemic levels. The number of physical trips to work and shops is expected to decrease. The main determinants of work from home are job type, industry and education. The main determinants of online shopping are age and education. The strength of influence of these determinants on the expected frequency of online activities after the pandemic differs from their impact before the pandemic. The expected modal split for commuting to work and for out-of-home shopping stays virtually unchanged relative to the situation before the pandemic.