Expected impacts and value of improvements in weather forecasting on the road transport sector

Abstract

AbstractAtmospheric predictability has improved by approximately 1 day per decade during the last 20 years based on verification results of ECMWF forecast output. In Finland, locally applied accuracy measures indicate marked improvements in the quality of forecasts for the general public since the late 1980s. It is assumed that similar trends will continue to the foreseeable future. Use of weather information will allow for better options in the decision‐making of various stake holders in the transport sector, such as commuters or tourists, transport infrastructure owners and transport service and maintenance operators. This paper discusses the economic impacts and value of weather forecasts on different transport modes (road, rail, air) highlighting the effects of potential improvements in forecast quality in the expected future climates in Europe. It is not only the improved quality of available weather forecasts that will define the value of information. The way in which the information is communicated and how it is being utilized by decision‐makers are highly relevant steps in a weather service value chain. Rather than applying the traditional Cost‐Loss model, which would relate improved forecast accuracy to increased expected utility, an alternative approach is being applied. This ‘Weather Service Chain Analysis’ (WSCA) accounts for imperfect features in the communication chain and in the use of weather information by analysing the decay of the total potential benefits via decomposing the information flow from original forecast generation to final benefit realization. Concrete estimates are provided for the road transport modes both in Finland and in Europe. Copyright © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society