Abstract
The Middle East (ME) is characterized by its water shortage problem. This region with its arid climate is expected to be the most vulnerable in the world to the potential impacts of climate change. Iraq (located in ME) is seriously experiencing water shortage problem. To overcome this problem rain water harvesting can be used. In this study the applicability of the long-term weather generator model in downscaling daily precipitation Central Iraq is used to project future changes of precipitation based on scenario of seven General Circulation Models (GCMs) outputs for the periods of 2011-2030, 2046-2065, and 2080-2099. The results indicated that December-February and September-November periods, based on the ensemble mean of seven GCMs, showed an increasing trend in the periods considered; however, a decreasing trend can be found in March, April, and May in the future.
Highlights
Climate change is considered to be the biggest challenge facing by the mankind in the twenty first century
Construction of dams on the Tigris and Euphrates and their tributaries outside the border of Iraq, the effect of global climate change and mismanagement of water resources are the main factors in the water shortage problems in Iraq [2] [3]
Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) uses observed daily weather data for a given site to compute a set of parameters for probability distributions of weather variables as well as well as correlation between them, which are used to generate synthetic weather time series of arbitrary length by randomly selecting values from the appropriate distributions
Summary
Climate change is considered to be the biggest challenge facing by the mankind in the twenty first century. Both climate variability and change can lead to severe impacts on different major sectors of the world such as water resources, agriculture, energy and tourism. Construction of dams on the Tigris and Euphrates and their tributaries outside the border of Iraq, the effect of global climate change and mismanagement of water resources are the main factors in the water shortage problems in Iraq [2] [3]. One of the solutions to overcome the water shortage crises is to use non-conventional water resources (e.g. water harvesting) and to apply such techniques the spatial distribution and intensity of rainfall events are required [3] [6]-[12]
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