Abstract
In Aytugrul v The Queen the High Court held that it was acceptable to express the strength of DNA evidence in terms of an exclusion percentage. A key reason of the Court was that this was equivalent to the expected frequency of the DNA profile. This article assesses these two measures from a mathematical perspective. While the two are closely related, the frequency measure is to be preferred. The exclusion percentage fails to adequately capture the difference in probative value between DNA profiles of different frequencies.
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