Expected family size and family size values in West Germany

Abstract

Abstract The principal results of the investigation may be summarized as follows 1. Questions about expected family size appeared to be reasonable and meaningful to the respondents. Almost all were able to give definite answers. There was no indication of any tendency for the very young to give erratic or unrealistic answers. The data show stability as between age cohorts as well as continuity with historical trends.2. West Germans expect to have 2.2 children on the average. This figure is consistent with recent data for completed family size. It is approximately what is required for population replacement under existing conditions, and therefore is consistent with recent estimates of the net reproduction rate.3. he expected, ideal, and desired numbers of children are very strongly concentrated in a range of 1–3 children. Relatively few expect to be childless and almost none desire it. Also, relatively few expect, desire, or idealize large families.4. This consensus on a particular narrow range of values about family size is found in all major strata of the population considered, to a greater or lesser degree, but there are some differences which may have demographic significance.5. Religious affiliation continues to have an important association with fertility. In particular, Catholics, and especially those with a close attachment to the Church have, expect, and value larger families thann other groups, although even the Catholics do not want really large families.6. Urbanization continues to be associated with fertility measures in that the larger the size of the community the smaller the number of children for any of the fertility measures.7. Working wives have, expect, and desire fewer children than those who do not work.8. As between occupational groups, the most notable differences are those distinguishing farmers from all other occupational groups. There is also some indication that the traditionally negative correlation of fertility and education may be reversing itself with the highest fertility expectations among the best educated in the current generation. The very lowest income stratum has somewhat higher fertility values than those with higher incomes. Otherwise, income strata do not differ significantly.9. In most respects the data on expectations for Western Germany fall into patterns similar to those for the United States. In both countries there is a marked consensus about family size pervading all population strata. Data on expectations for both show : biggest occupational differences between farmers and urban groups, consistently higher values for Catholics than for others, but all religious groups espousing and expecting relatively small families; relatively low fertility values for working wives; evidence that the best-educated expect the most children. There are, however, some very significant points of difference fertility expectations differ by city size in West Germany but not in the United States; more importantly, the West German consensus is for 0.8 fewer children than in the United States—enough to differentiate a stationary population from one with fairly rapid growth.