Abstract
The outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, enhanced by rapid spreads of variants, has caused a major international health crisis, with serious public health and economic consequences. An agent-based model was designed to simulate the evolution of the epidemic in France over 2021 and the first six months of 2022. The study compares the efficiencies of four theoretical vaccination campaigns (over 6, 9, 12, and 18 months), combined with various non-pharmaceutical interventions. In France, with the emergence of the Alpha variant, without vaccination and despite strict barrier measures, more than 600,000 deaths would be observed. An efficient vaccination campaign (i.e., total coverage of the French population) over six months would divide the death toll by 10. A vaccination campaign of 12, instead of 6, months would slightly increase the disease-related mortality (+6%) but require a 77% increase in ICU bed–days. A campaign over 18 months would increase the disease-related mortality by 17% and require a 244% increase in ICU bed–days. Thus, it seems mandatory to vaccinate the highest possible percentage of the population within 12, or better yet, 9 months. The race against the epidemic and virus variants is really a matter of vaccination strategy.
Highlights
The outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 virus is causing major national, European, and international health crises, with serious public health and economic consequences
A maximum daily requirement of 23,732 intensive care units (ICUs) beds were needed on day 186 (Figure 1b)
A slightly delayed effect of changes between intensive and moderate protection measures on ICU needs was observed under relaxed-non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), and the control of the epidemic was obtained after 500 days
Summary
The outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 virus is causing major national, European, and international health crises, with serious public health and economic consequences. The COVID-19 epidemic started in China, in late autumn 2019, and, on 31 December [1], the WHO China office received reports on severe pneumonia cases in the city of Wuhan (Hubei Province). The dynamics of the epidemic is continuously assessed through monitoring the number of hospital admissions, occupancy rate of intensive care units (ICUs), and cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19-related deaths. In France, in 2020, two lockdown periods were imposed to avoid saturation of ICUs that would increase mortality. At the beginning and end of the second lockdown (30 October and 15 December 2020, respectively), the numbers of daily hospital deaths were 222 and 276, respectively, and a maximum of 419 deaths was reached on 19 November. The resulting epidemic situation was less favorable after the second lockdown; it showed a residual plateau with 240 to 340 daily hospital deaths
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
