Expected Changes in Evaporation in the Taiga Zone of European Russia in the XXI Century

Abstract

Model estimates were made for changes in the actual evaporation of boreal forests in the taiga zone of European Russia caused by climate evolution in the XXI century. Climate changes were forecasted using the results of calculations by an MGO regional climate model. The space and time specification of the forecast data was made with the use of a model of the atmospheric boundary layer. Variations of the forecasted changes due to the use of different methods to calculate evaporation were studied. Calculations based on an additional (complementary) relationship, determining the actual evaporation with the use of standard meteorological characteristics were compared with observations and calculations based on a detail model of energy transport in a forest massif. The model values of the actual evaporation in the XXI century increase all over the European Russia. The effect of the intensity of dry periods on the evolution of actual evaporation is analyzed. It is shown that, despite the arid climate, the effect of dry periods on taiga forests will be moderately negative.