Expectations Data and the Predictive Value of Interim Reporting

Abstract

This paper provides an adaptive model depicting the interaction between the disclosure of interim earnings and the accuracy of earnings forecasts that are made public by security analysts. Our results indicate that accuracy of annual earnings forecasts is highly correlated with the announcement of interim earnings, suggesting that security analysts use the signals provided by the disclosure of interim reports. Though intuitively appealing, these results are inconsistent with some of the earlier research findings concerning the predictive power of quarterly earnings. They also provide a good explanation for the reasonably high rate of accuracy of analysts' annual earnings forecasts.