Expectations About Future Economic Prospects and Satisfaction with Democracy: Evidence from European Countries during the COVID-19 Crisis

Elina De Simone,Giuseppe Lucio Gaeta,Mauro Pinto,Lorenzo Cicatiello

doi:10.1007/s11205-021-02783-8

Abstract

Recent studies highlight that economic expectations are a crucial determinant of citizens’ satisfaction with democracy (SWD). This article relies on a cross-sectional analysis of European survey data collected in the aftermath of COVID-19 disease to investigate the relationship between citizens’ expectations about future economic prospects and their SWD. Our findings support the idea that citizens’ expectations about future economic prospects are correlated with SWD. Furthermore, they reveal that perceived conditions of material wellbeing moderate this relationship.

Highlights

It is widely acknowledged that the spread of the COVID-19 virus put democracies under pressure (e.g., Bol et al, 2020; Flinders, 2020)
In line with previous literature (Loveless & Binelli, 2020; Nadeau et al, 2019), when citizens have pessimistic expectations about their future economic status, they are less satisfied with democracy. These findings are relevant during the COVID-19 pandemic that has profoundly shaped citizens’ economic expectations (Fetzer et al, 2020)
Our analyses suggest that any effect on expectations of future economic deterioration is likely to matter for satisfaction with democracy (SWD)

Summary

Introduction

It is widely acknowledged that the spread of the COVID-19 virus put democracies under pressure (e.g., Bol et al, 2020; Flinders, 2020). Many European agencies and think tanks have launched surveys to investigate the possible implications of the pandemic across Europe (e.g., Eurofound; European Council on Foreign Relations—ECFR), exploring how the outbreak has shaped European citizens’ attitudes toward the governing authorities This topic is considered highly relevant because “the coronavirus is already reshaping the debate about regime legitimacy and state capacity” By using cross-sectional microdata collected by Eurofound (2020) in its survey of European citizens’ living and working conditions in the wake of COVID-19, our investigation aims to assess whether individuals’ prospective expectations about their economic situation are correlated with their SWD.

Background and hypotheses

Data and methodology

Main findings

Other findings

Expectations about future economic prospects and current economic conditions

Discussion and conclusion