Expectancy in Renaissance Italy: Prophecy and Prognostication Around 1500

Abstract

This article examines the phenomenon of prophecy and prediction in the exceptional climate of expectancy that distinguished the close of the fifteenth century in Italy, and in the period of intense eschatological and astrological activity and dispute that ensued at the start of the following century. Both optimistic neo-Platonic hopes and fearsome predictions of tribulation mark the century's close, draw on the planetary conjunction of 1484, and merge with the Joachimist tradition in the anticipation of Antichrist. Savonarola's prophetic mission dominates the 1490s and gives rise to a plethora of eschatological activity in the new century. This provokes a forceful reaction from the Church which is itself, however, not free from such excesses. Prediction through divinatory astrology elicits a more reasoned reaction from Giovanni Pico whose confutation of stellar divination published in 1496 sparks off a heated polemic and is reflected later in the controversy on the conjunction of 1524. Such phenomena should not serve prejudiciously as a measure of presumed rational human progress; they could instead be interpreted as reflecting a shared consciousness that survives to the present day.