Expansion of the olive crop based on modeling climatic variables using geographic information system (GIS) in Aljouf region KSA

Abstract

Since ancient times, civilizations have expanded their agricultural activities, particularly in crops related to human nutrition, where the process of agricultural expansion followed a traditional strategy. These random methods are based on searching for lands where water is available, whether through rain or irrigation, so these methods are not feasible. This paper uses a scientific approach to expand the olive crop cultivation by modeling environmental factors that impact olive growth by searching for other lands that have the same climatic characteristics as cultivated lands. The study focuses on defining the lands actually planted with the olive crop and then comparing them with the new lands that were discovered and identified by the model that created using ArcGIS software. It is noted that these new lands are completely similar to the actual lands in terms of soil and climate. Therefore, we selected five time periods in November, December, January and February from 2016 to 2020. The images of the vegetation were downloaded from eMODIS NDVI and eVIRS NDVI satellites. The model included most of the main environmental factors like temperature, rainfall, elevation, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) In addition to the most important factor, which is the soil. By comparing the suggested areas to grow olive crop with actual areas, the model illustrates and explains the suitability of the suggested area for olive cultivation. By examining the final map and graphs from the model, the results indicate a very high success rate in the productivity of olives in the suggested areas. By the other hand this study reinforces the concept of Land-use/land-cover (LULC), which is one of the crucial concepts that are concerned with the change of land from one state to another over time series according to climatic changes.